Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, is set to speak at the 18th annual U.S. Monetary Policy Forum in New York City on March 7, 2025. The conference brings together academics, market economists, and policymakers to discuss critical issues facing the Federal Open Market Committee. Sponsored by the Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, the event includes a report prepared by a panel of scholars addressing key monetary policy challenges.
Powell will deliver the lunch keynote at 12:30 p.m. ET. His speech comes at a time when the Federal Reserve’s policy independence is under scrutiny. Efforts to control inflation could be undermined by trade policies, particularly tariffs, which may increase price pressures. Economic indicators suggest slowing consumer spending, weaker retail sales, declines in manufacturing and construction, and a stagnant housing market, leading to downward revisions in first-quarter growth forecasts.
Despite previous indications that the Federal Reserve was in no rush to cut interest rates, market expectations have shifted. Investors now anticipate three rate cuts in 2025, an increase from earlier projections of one or two, following the February jobs report. Concerns are growing that tariffs and retaliatory trade measures could reignite inflation, complicating monetary policy decisions. February’s Consumer Price Index data, set for release on March 12, 2025, will provide further insight into inflation trends ahead of the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting on March 18–19.
The forum begins with the presentation of the 2025 report, Monetary Policy Transmission to Real Activity, authored by Seth Carpenter (Morgan Stanley), Michael Feroli (JP Morgan), David Mericle (Goldman Sachs), Linda Tesar (University of Michigan), and Kenneth West (University of Wisconsin). The report will be discussed by Michelle Bowman from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and John Williams from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
The conference concludes with a panel discussion on central bank framework reviews, featuring Pablo Hernández de Cos, formerly of the Bank of Spain; Donald Kohn of the Brookings Institution; Matthew Shapiro of the University of Michigan; and Loretta Mester, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, who will moderate the discussion.
