Portuguese Prime Minister Luís Montenegro’s government has lost a vote of confidence, making it likely that the country will hold its third general election in under three years.
Parliament voted against him by 142 to 88, with no abstentions, leading to the collapse of his right-leaning minority government. While President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa is not required to dissolve the assembly, he has indicated that he would do so if the government lost the vote, paving the way for elections, likely in May.
The government itself initiated the confidence motion after the opposition Socialists proposed a parliamentary inquiry into Montenegro’s business activities. A company he founded, Spinumviva, continued receiving significant payments from clients he had secured before becoming leader of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) in 2022. Ownership of the company was later transferred to his wife and sons, raising concerns about the legality of the move, as he and his wife share joint assets. The couple has since transferred ownership entirely to their sons.
There are ongoing questions about the company’s sources of income, including a €4,500 monthly payment from hotel and casino group Solverde, whose gambling concession is under review. The prime minister has refused to disclose details about other clients or the services provided by Spinumviva, though he claims it offers consultancy on data privacy laws, outsourcing work to external experts. The Bar Association is now investigating whether the firm is improperly providing services that should be handled only by lawyers.
Montenegro’s cabinet has recently approved a series of spending and policy measures, seen as an effort to demonstrate its commitment to governance.
The political climate has also created an opportunity for the far-right party Chega to renew its stance against corruption. However, Chega has been dealing with its own controversies, with three of its MPs facing criminal accusations, including one charged with stealing luggage at Lisbon airport.
Montenegro’s coalition with the conservative People’s Party initially led in the polls after narrowly winning the 2024 election but has since fallen behind the Socialists, now led by Pedro Nuno Santos, a former minister in António Costa’s government.
Despite the political instability, none of the major parties are eager for a snap election, fearing voter fatigue and poor timing in the broader geopolitical landscape. However, an election in May seems inevitable, as Montenegro has opted to seek public support rather than undergo an inquiry—a decision criticized by the opposition as an act of avoidance.
Pedro Nuno Santos has remained firm in his long-standing position not to support any government confidence motion, reinforcing the likelihood of an early election.
