Finland became a full member of NATO less than two years ago, but questions are now emerging about the alliance’s reliability amid the possibility of Donald Trump returning to the White House. Recent remarks from Trump have raised concerns, particularly his false assertion that Ukraine was responsible for initiating the ongoing conflict. In reality, Russia launched a full-scale invasion three years ago, prompting Finland to seek NATO membership as a security measure.
Late last year, Finland released its first Defence Report since joining NATO, a document designed to guide its security policies well into the 2030s. The report acknowledged the ongoing security threat posed by Russia while also emphasizing that Finland’s NATO membership had reduced the risks. However, recent global developments have led some experts to question whether the report remains fully relevant.
Tuomas Forsberg, a professor of international politics at the University of Tampere, believes that Finland should re-evaluate its strategic stance. He suggests that Trump’s influence has altered US policy to such an extent that Finland cannot automatically rely on the alliance’s support. Forsberg argues that the Finnish Parliament must take this shift into account, as NATO’s deterrence strategy assumes the ability to mount a large-scale military response to nuclear threats. Trump’s unpredictable approach to governance, which at times appears to bypass international norms and institutions, adds another layer of uncertainty.
Former defence minister Antti Kaikkonen agrees that the report may already be outdated, particularly in its assessment of US foreign policy and relations with Russia. MP Veronika Honkasalo also supports the idea that Finland should reassess the role of the United States in its defence outlook. However, Prime Minister Petteri Orpo urges caution, arguing that the suggestion that US credibility within NATO has been significantly weakened is an overreaction. He emphasizes that Europe must take greater responsibility for its own security and assures that Finland will continue its commitment to that effort.
Education Minister Anders Adlercreutz also advises against jumping to conclusions regarding the direction of US policy. He suggests that, for now, Finland should operate under the assumption that NATO’s fundamental structures remain intact. Jukka Kopra, chair of the defence committee, has rejected calls to revise the Defence Report, asserting that the document was carefully formulated and remains relevant.
President Alexander Stubb, preparing for a security summit in London, acknowledges the shifting geopolitical landscape. Over the past year, more significant changes have occurred than in the previous three decades. Despite this period of uncertainty, he remains optimistic, stating that his access to security intelligence gives him confidence in Finland’s position. While he recognizes that the US has become less stable in its policy approaches, he also sees potential opportunities in economic cooperation, including possible deals in icebreaker technology and defense exports.
Concerns about shifting US attitudes toward global institutions have also surfaced. The country has taken a more skeptical stance on organizations such as the United Nations, the World Trade Organization, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Health Organization, as well as agreements like the Paris Climate Accord. A recent UN vote regarding Ukraine demonstrated this shift when the US aligned itself with Russia in opposing a motion condemning Russian aggression.
As discussions continue about the future of European security, the question of whether the European Union should establish a joint military force has arisen. While Prime Minister Orpo is expected to address this topic at the upcoming EU summit, President Stubb remains reserved about sharing his own views on the matter for now.
